SMALL CAP RESEARCH REPORT
October 22nd, 1999
STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATION
3rd Follow Up Report
Greg Manning Auctions, Inc. ‘GMAI’
Greg Manning Auctions, Inc. | Ticker Symbol: | GMAI | |
775 Passaic Avenue | Recent Price | $8.00/share | |
West Caldwell, | Shares Outstanding: | 6,812,245 | |
NJ. 07006 | Estimated Float: | 3.6 million shares | |
Telephone number | (973) 882-0004 | Average Daily Trading Volume: | 52,500 shares |
www.gregmanning.com | www.teletrade.com |
Company Description:
of 1998, the Company
acquired Teletrade, Inc. which gave the Company the platform to conduct auctions over the Internet. As a result, Greg Manning Auctions believes it is now well positioned to become a premier collectibles destination site on the Internet. In addition to conducting its operations in the United States, Greg Manning Auctions’ goal is to become a leading collector destination site on the Internet throughout the world. In furtherance of this goal, the Company has recognized the opportunity that exists in Asia and Europe where the Internet has not had the same penetration as it has to date in the U.S. Accordingly, in 1999, Greg Manning Auctions established one of the first collectibles online auction house in China, GMAI-ASIA.com, and conducted , the Company believes ,the first ever online Internet stamp auction in that country. In addition, in 1999 the Company, together with Afinsa Bienes Tangibles, S.A. formed GMAI-Europe.com, a joint venture formed to conduct Internet auction and retail sales in Europe through a newly established office in Madrid, Spain.
The Company believes, based on its knowledge of the market, that it is one of the largest auction houses of stamps in the world (although there is no publicly available data with respect to stamp auction sales). In addition to stamps, stamp collections and stocks, the Company’s expanded product line includes items such as sports trading cards and memorabilia, movie posters, fine art, rare coins, diamonds, comic books, Hollywood and Rock and Roll Memorabilia, manuscripts and autographs.
During 1999, the Company signed a joint marketing agreement with AT&T Labs to promote Greg Manning’s high-end auction services and AT&T Labs’ DjVu technology on AT&T Worldnet Services Home Page. The Company also signed a
definitive agreement with Butterfield & Butterfield, a wholly-owned subsidiary of eBay Inc., under which Greg Manning will be a significant participant in a future initiative by e-Bay to feature premier offerings of collectibles and fine art from around the world. The Company’s websites are: WWW.GREGMANNING.COM, WWW.TELETRADE.COM, and www.gmai-asia.com.
Recent Events:
Growth Potential:
We believe that Greg Manning Auctions will be able to increase its revenue to approximately $100 million in the next fiscal year. Our earnings per share estimate is $0.50/share.
Comparables:
ONSALE, Inc. ‘ONLS’ mention merger with egghead, and widening loss. (left off on the updating the comparrison table with Ubid)
Greg Manning Auctions ‘GMAI’ | ONSALE, Inc. ‘ONSL’ | eBay, Inc. ‘EBAY’ | Ubid, Inc. ‘UBID’ | Richie Brother Auctioneers ‘RBA’ | Sotheby’s Holdings, Inc. ‘BID’ | Average of Comparables | |
Sales (millions) | $39 million combined | $266 Million | $124.7Million | $159.1 Mill. | $124.3 Million | $411.8 Mill. | $167.75 Million |
After Tax Income | $580,000 est. | ($23.8) million | $6.76 million | ($16.8) million | $0.00 | $35.9 Million | $13.67 Million |
Share Price | $12.00 | $18.0625 | $148.625 | $35.25 | $26.68 | $30.25 | $71.14 per share |
Shares Outstanding | 6.8 million | 19.6 million | 128.6 million | 11.2 million | 16.1 Million | 39.9 Million | 24.88 million shares |
Market Capitalization | $81.6 million | $350 million | $19.1 Billion | $391 mill. | $430.1 Million | $1.24 Billion | $2.47 Billion |
Price/Book | 4.31 times book | 9.97 times book | 22.75 times book | 26.82 | 4.74 times | 4.54 times | 34.4 times book |
Price/Earnings | 122 times earnings | N/A | 1,742 times earnings | N/A | N/A | 48.3 times | 2,000 times earnings |
Price/Sales | 4.95 times sales | 1.30 times sales | 148 times sales | 1.94 times sales | 3.5 times sales | 3 times sales | 44.5 times sales |
Book Value | $2.85 | $1.79 per share | $1.30 per share | ($0.45) | $5.63/share | $6.67 per share | $3.32 per share |
Earnings per Share | $0.10 | ($1.22) | ($2.45) | ($1.36) | $0.00 | $0.63 | ($0.29) |
Our Analysis:
By all measures of valuation Greg Manning Auctions is the lowest valued of the publicly traded auction companies. Due to the lack of profits among our comparables a direct comparison of Greg Manning based upon profits is difficult. The fact that Greg Manning is profitable is a very large positive for the stock.. The most effective direct comparison is based upon a market capitalization multiple to sales. For accuracy, we will remove eBay from the comparables, because eBay’s absurdly high number distorts the results. Removing eBay from the multiple of sales brings the average among the comparables to 4.97. This means that the average auction company has a market capitalization equal to 4.97 times its annual sales. A similar valuation for Greg Manning Auctions would produce a market capitalization of $223 million. This would translate into a per share price of $33.85/share.
To the best of knowledge there are only six publicly traded auction companies. Of these six companies only three of them are profitable; Greg Manning Auctions, eBay, and Sotheby’s Holdings. The extremely high and unrealistic market valuation of eBay does not make in an attractive investment in our opinion. In our opinion eBay would need to generate in excess of $3 Billion in annual sales to justify its current market capitalization. The main purpose of business is to generate profits, otherwise it would be a charity or a government enterprise. Sterling Investment Services has serious doubts as to the ability of the auction companies that specialize in used computer equipment and other commodity items to generate substantial profits. It is one of our beliefs that when investing in a company, the focus needs to be on their ability to produce substantial and sustainable profits. Removing eBay from our list of three profitable auction companies leaves us with Sotheby’s and Greg Manning Auctions. By all measures of comparison Greg Manning Auctions is significantly undervalued when compared to Sotheby’s. We feel this creates very significant upside potential for the shares of Greg Manning Auctions. In fact, when compared to all five of the other publicly traded auction companies, Greg Manning Auctions has the lowest market capitalization, price to book, price to sales, and price to earnings ratios. This in our opinion makes Greg Manning Auctions the most attractive of the companies within this industry.
Our Recommendation: Strong Buy
Sterling Investment Services is placing a “Strong Buy” recommendation on the shares of Greg Manning Auctions, NASDAQ Ticker symbol ‘GMAI’.
Contact Information
For an investment relations package on the company please contact: Greg Manning Auctions (973) 882-0004
To receive additional information on the company or its stock please complete the form below and submit it.
Disclaimers:
Sterling Investment Services, Inc. is an independent research and investment management firm. Sterling Investment Services, Inc. did not receive any compensation for the production of this research report. Sterling Investment Services, Inc. is a shareholder in Greg Manning Auctions though its own account and accounts that it manages. Sterling Investment Services, Inc. publishes 3 daily newsletters. You are invited to sign up for a free trial offer to any of our services listed below.
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